t t t course in the "Analysis of Low Speed Collisions" which includes live human subject crash testing with more than just vehicle accelerometers but also human subject accelerometers not unlike what we're doing for Croft in August. You ought to check into that one for a realistic reconstruction perspective of the topic.

Rusty Haight
rustyhaight@worldnet.att.net


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depth study of neck injuries in rear end collisions. 1990 International IRCOBI Conference, Bron, Lyon, France, September 12-14, 1-15, 1990.

Norris SH, Watt I: The prognosis of neck injuries resulting from rear-end vehicle collisions. J Bone Joint Surg 65B(5):608-611, 1983.

Parmar HV, Raymakers R: Neck injuries from rear impact road traffic accidents: prognosis in persons seeking compensation. Injury 24(2):75-78, 1993.

Watkinson A, Gargan MG, Bannister GC: Prognostic factors in soft tissue injuries of the cervical spine. Injury 22(4):307-309, 1991.

Gargan MF, Bannister GC: The rate of recovery following whiplash injury. Eur Spine J 3:162-164, 1994.

Borchgrevink GE, Lereim I, Ryneland L, Bjorndal A, Haraldseth O: National health insurance consumption and chronic symptoms following mild neck sprain injuries in car accidents. Scand J Soc Med 24(4):264-271, 1996.

Squires B, Gargan MF, Bannister GC: Soft-tissue injuries of the cervical spine: 15-year follow-up. J Bone Joint Surg 78-B(6):955-957.

Gargan M, Bannister G, Main C, Hollis S: The behavioral response to whiplash injury. J Bone Joint Surg 79-B:523-526, 1997.

Rear impact injuries have a worse prognosis than side or frontal impact injuries. On average about 46% of the patients in these studies had not recovered completely at follow-up--about 10% rating their problems as "disabling" or "severe". Using these outcome studies, in conjunction with the incidence figure of 3 million, Croft estimated the following prevalence figures:

1) Assuming a more conservative 2 million injuries per year and a 25% non-resolution of symptoms, after 25 cumulative years of whiplash, the prevalence of chronic pain in the U.S. would be 6731/100,000, or 6.7% of the population.

2) Assuming 50% non-resolution of symptoms (which I believe is more realistic), after 25 cumulative years of whiplash, the prevalence of chronic pain in the U.S. would be a remarkable 9615/100,000, or 9.6% of the population.

When we talk about risk, then the PUBLISHED crash tests are particularly relevant. Clearly, we're seeing injuries in the human volunteers as low as 2.5-5.0 mph delta V. There seems to be no debate regarding the injury threshold among the majority of researchers (with the exception of nut-cases like Robert Ferrari and Anthony Russell from Canada). And I would first say to you, what proof do you have that your research subjects have not been harmed or injured long-term? The long